Puebla - CF Monterrey Rayados prediction 22 October 2026

Puebla vs CF Monterrey Rayados prediction for their Liga MX clash at Estadio Cuauhtémoc on Oct 22, 02:00. Based on the stats, form, and odds, CF Monterrey Rayados enters as the favorite with a 42% win probability, while Puebla has a 30% chance. The draw sits at 28%.

Team Form

Puebla's recent form is concerning. They are winless in their last five matches, recording three draws and two losses. Most recently, they drew 0-0 away at Tijuana on Oct 17 and 1-1 at home against Club Leon on Oct 10. Losses to Tigres UANL (0-1) and Toluca (0-1) highlight struggles in attack, scoring just two goals in five games.

CF Monterrey Rayados shows mixed form with two wins, two draws, and one loss. They come off a 2-1 home win over Pachuca on Oct 19 and earned a 1-1 draw at Club America on Oct 11. A 4-2 defeat at Atlante on Sep 26 is a blemish, but they rebounded with a 1-0 win over Cruz Azul. They are tougher to beat, scoring six goals in five.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors CF Monterrey Rayados. In 26 meetings, they have 13 wins to Puebla's 7, with 6 draws. The last five encounters reflect this trend. CF Monterrey Rayados won the most recent clash 2-1 at home on Apr 22, 2026, and crushed Puebla 4-2 away on Aug 30, 2025. Puebla's last win in this fixture came earlier, and they managed only two draws in five matches, both 1-1 (Jan 13, 2025, and Oct 4, 2023).

League Table Positions

Puebla sit 12th in the overall table with 16 points from 12 matches (4W, 4D, 4L), scoring just 12 goals and conceding 13. CF Monterrey Rayados are 8th with 17 points from 11 games (5W, 2D, 4L), netting 19 goals. The away side holds a game in hand. Puebla's home form table isn't prominent in the top 8, while CF Monterrey Rayados boast the 2nd-best home record (13 points from 6 games). Notably, Puebla's away table shows 7th place with 10 points, but here they host a Monterrey side strong on the road.

Win Probability: Puebla or CF Monterrey Rayados?

The win probability calculation uses odds as a base. Taking the most balanced bookmaker odds (home 3.70, draw 2.20, away 2.30), the inverse probabilities before margin removal are roughly Puebla 25%, draw 43%, CF Monterrey Rayados 41%. Normalizing for a 100% total, and adjusting for Puebla's poor form (no wins in five), their negative H2H record, and CF Monterrey Rayados' superior league position and goal difference, the adjusted outcome probabilities are: Puebla win: 30%, draw: 28%, CF Monterrey Rayados win: 42%. The visitors' historical dominance and slightly better recent results make them the more likely winner, though Puebla's home advantage and three recent draws keep the probability of a point for the hosts competitive.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varying odds for the 1X2 market. The best available odds are Puebla 4.12 (home), draw 2.30, and CF Monterrey Rayados 1.77 (away). Other bookies list home 3.60–3.95, draw 2.20–2.30, and away 1.77–2.30. The odds clearly indicate CF Monterrey Rayados as favorites. Based on the stats, our prediction leans towards an away win, but a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out given Puebla's recent stalemates.