Puebla - Pumas UNAM prediction 31 October 2026

Our Puebla vs Pumas UNAM prediction for the Liga MX match on Oct 31, 2026, at Estadio Cuauhtémoc gives the visitors a 40% win probability, making them slight favorites over the home side. The game kicks off at 03:00 and features two teams tied on 16 points in the league table, but recent head-to-head form and bookmaker odds suggest an away victory is the most likely outcome.

Team Form

Puebla enters this match winless in their last five outings (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). They suffered a heavy 1-4 home defeat to CF Monterrey Rayados on Oct 22, followed by a 0-0 draw at Tijuana. Earlier, they drew 1-1 with Club Leon and Atlante, and lost 0-1 at Tigres UANL. Over these five matches, Puebla scored only 3 goals while conceding 7, highlighting struggles at both ends.

Pumas UNAM’s recent form is slightly better with one win, two draws, and two losses. They drew 1-1 at home to Tigres UANL on Oct 25, lost 0-2 at Santos Laguna, but secured a 2-1 away win at Atlante. A thrilling 3-3 draw with Cruz Azul and a 2-3 home loss to Atletico San Luis round out their last five. Pumas scored 8 goals and conceded 10, showing more attacking threat but defensive frailties.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record between these two sides is closely contested: in 27 meetings, Puebla has 8 wins, Pumas UNAM 10, and 9 draws. However, recent history heavily favors the visitors. Pumas UNAM has won four of the last five encounters, with one draw. The most recent clash on Feb 14, 2026, ended 3-2 to Pumas. Other results include a 0-0 draw in August 2025, a 3-1 Pumas win in March 2025, a 3-0 Pumas victory in February 2024, and a 2-0 away win for Pumas in September 2023. Puebla has not beaten Pumas in any of these five matches.

League Table Positions

Both teams are locked on 16 points after 13 matches in the Liga MX overall standings. Puebla sits 12th with a 4-4-5 record, 13 goals scored and 17 conceded. Pumas UNAM is one place higher at 11th, also with 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, but a slightly better goal difference (19 scored, 22 conceded). Puebla’s home form does not rank among the league’s top eight, indicating struggles at Estadio Cuauhtémoc, while Pumas UNAM’s away record is 8th best, with 10 points from 7 road games (3 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses).

Win Probability: Puebla or Pumas?

Based on bookmaker odds and recent performances, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Puebla has a 30% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Pumas UNAM has a 40% chance. The odds implied a close contest, but Pumas’ dominance in recent head-to-head meetings and Puebla’s ongoing winless streak tip the balance toward the away side. Home advantage at Estadio Cuauhtémoc has not been a decisive factor this season, further supporting Pumas as the more likely winner.

Puebla vs Pumas UNAM Prediction & Odds

Bookmakers’ odds for this match vary: most list a home win around 2.75–2.90, the draw at 2.18–2.30, and an away win at 2.55–2.62. The low draw odds reflect the expectation of a tight game, consistent with our 30% draw probability. One outlier bookmaker offers 1.32 for both a home and away victory, but the general market consensus points to a slight edge for Pumas UNAM. Our prediction aligns with this view — Pumas UNAM to win. Given both teams’ recent scoring records (Puebla scored in three of their last five, Pumas in four), the both teams to score market could also offer value.