Qarabag - Safa Baku prediction 18 September 2026

Qarabag vs Safa Baku prediction for the Premyer Liqa match on September 18, 2026, at 15:45. Based on the latest form, league standings, and bookmaker odds, Qarabag are the clear favorites with a 78% win probability.

Team Form

Qarabag Last 5 Matches

• Sep 13: Zira 1-1 Qarabag (Draw)
• Sep 6: Qarabag 3-2 Araz Nakchivan (Win)
• Aug 31: FK Sumqayit 0-1 Qarabag (Win)
• Aug 27: Qarabag 1-2 Twente (Loss) – Conference League
• Aug 22: Qarabag 0-0 FK Kapaz (Draw)

Qarabag remain unbeaten in the Premyer Liqa with three wins and two draws from their last five league outings, scoring 8 and conceding 4.

Safa Baku Last 5 Matches

• Sep 14: Safa Baku 0-3 Sabah Baku FC (Loss)
• Sep 5: Neftchi Baku 4-1 Safa Baku (Loss)
• Aug 29: Safa Baku 0-1 FK MKT Araz Imisli (Loss)
• Aug 22: Qabala 0-1 Safa Baku (Win)
• Aug 16: Zira 2-0 Safa Baku (Loss)

Safa Baku have lost four of their last five matches and conceded 10 goals in the league. Their only positive result was a narrow 1-0 win at Qabala.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no recent head-to-head data available between Qarabag and Safa Baku. This fixture will be a first meeting in the recorded history, offering no direct past advantage for either side.

League Table Positions

Qarabag sit 3rd in the Premyer Liqa with 10 points from 4 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses). At home they are perfect with 2 wins from 2, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Safa Baku are 10th with 3 points from 5 matches (1 win, 4 losses), and away from home they have collected just 3 points from 3 games (2 goals scored, 6 conceded). The 7‑point gap and the striking home/away contrast underline Qarabag’s dominance.

Win Probability: Qarabag or Safa Baku?

Qarabag has a 78% chance of winning, the draw stands at 17%, and Safa Baku has a 5% chance. The calculation starts from the aggregated bookmaker odds (inverse of the odds normalized to remove margins), which gave Qarabag an implied probability of around 71%. Adjustments for Qarabag’s unbeaten league record, perfect home form, and Safa Baku’s poor defensive numbers (10 goals conceded in 5 league games) move the home win probability to 78%. An away win is highly improbable given Safa Baku’s form.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Qarabag as strong favorites, offering home win odds as low as 1.09 and averaging between 1.12 and 1.14. The draw odds range from 3.00 to 3.30, while an away win for Safa Baku reaches up to 17.67. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a Qarabag victory. The home side’s defensive solidity and attacking edge should lead them to a comfortable three points.