Chivas Guadalajara - Queretaro prediction 27 September 2026

The Chivas Guadalajara vs Queretaro prediction for September 27, 2026, points to a home win in this Liga MX clash. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Chivas Guadalajara has a 60% chance of winning, while a draw stands at 25% and a Queretaro victory at 15%.

Team Form

Chivas Guadalajara come into this match in strong shape, unbeaten in their last five outings (W3 D2). They drew 2-2 away at Club America on September 20, then thrashed Pumas UNAM 3-0 at home, beat Atletico San Luis 3-0 on the road, drew 1-1 at Pachuca, and demolished Tijuana 5-2 at home. Over these five matches, Chivas scored 14 goals and conceded only 5, showcasing both attacking firepower and defensive solidity.

Queretaro have been solid on their travels but show mixed recent form (W2 D2 L1). They drew 1-1 at home to Club Leon on September 21, won 1-0 at Tijuana, drew 0-0 at home to CF Monterrey Rayados, won 3-1 at Atlas Guadalajara, and lost 1-2 at home to Toluca. Away from home, Queretaro remain unbeaten in their last four (W3 D1), scoring 6 and conceding 2.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, this fixture has been dominated by draws. In 22 previous meetings, Chivas Guadalajara have won 3, Queretaro 2, and 17 ended level. The last five encounters:

• Jan 17, 2026: Chivas Guadalajara 2-1 Queretaro
• Oct 23, 2025: Queretaro 1-0 Chivas Guadalajara
• Feb 1, 2025: Chivas Guadalajara 1-1 Queretaro
• Nov 1, 2023: Queretaro 1-2 Chivas Guadalajara
• Feb 5, 2023: Chivas Guadalajara 1-1 Queretaro

Chivas have won two of the last five, Queretaro one, with two draws – a pattern that reinforces the likelihood of a tight contest.

League Table Positions

Chivas Guadalajara sit 2nd in the Liga MX overall table with 18 points from 9 matches (5 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss). They have scored 17 and conceded 8. At home, they rank 5th with 9 points from 4 games (3 wins, 1 loss). Queretaro are 5th overall with 14 points from 8 matches (4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses), scoring 11 and conceding 8. Notably, Queretaro boast the 2nd-best away record in the league: 10 points from 4 trips (3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses), with 6 goals scored and only 2 conceded.

Win Probability: Chivas Guadalajara or Queretaro?

After normalizing bookmaker odds and adjusting for recent form and head-to-head trends, the win probabilities are:

• Chivas Guadalajara win: 60%
• Draw: 25%
• Queretaro win: 15%

The raw odds implied a 68% home win chance, but Queretaro’s unbeaten away record and the historically high draw rate between these sides (17 draws in 22 meetings) justify a higher probability for the draw and a slight reduction for the home win. Chivas remain the clear favorites, but a stalemate cannot be ruled out.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers heavily favor Chivas Guadalajara. The best available odds at the time of writing are: home win 1.43, draw 5.40, away win 7.20. These odds reflect Chivas’s superior league position and home advantage, but the value may lie in the draw given the head-to-head history. Based on all stats, our prediction is a home win for Chivas Guadalajara, but with a cautious eye on the draw. A 2-1 or 1-1 scoreline looks plausible.