Baku Sporting - Sabail FC prediction 17 September 2026
Baku Sporting
Sabail FC
SimalBaku SportingBaku SportingMOIK BakuGanjabasar FKBaku SportingBaku SportingSabail FCPFK Simurq ZaqatalaBaku SportingBaku SportingKarvanSahdagBaku SportingBaku SportingPFK Simurq ZaqatalaCabrayil FCBaku SportingBaku SportingDifai AgsuSimalBaku SportingBaku SportingSafa BakuBaku SportingMOIK BakuSabail FCBaku SportingBaku SportingEnergetik MingechevirSahdagSabail FCPFK Simurq ZaqatalaSabail FCSabail FCKarvanBaku SportingSabail FCSabail FCEnergetik MingechevirKhankendiSabail FCEnergetik MingechevirSabail FCSabail FCSahdagPFK Simurq ZaqatalaSabail FCSabail FCCabrayil FCDifai AgsuSabail FCSabail FCSimalSafa BakuSabail FCSabail FCBaku SportingSabail FCMOIK BakuBaku SportingSabail FCSabail FCBaku SportingSabail FCBaku SportingBaku SportingSabail FC| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sahdag | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14:2 | +12 | 15 |
| 2 |  Ganjabasar FK | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10:4 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 | Sabail FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 11 |
| 4 |  MOIK Baku | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:3 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 |  Karvan | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:4 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 |  Simal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8:9 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 |  Khankendi | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 5 |
| 8 |  PFK Simurq Zaqatala | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6:14 | -8 | 4 |
| 9 |  Energetik Mingechevir | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5:14 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Baku Sporting | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1:12 | -11 | 0 |
Baku Sporting vs Sabail FC Prediction (Sep 17)
Baku Sporting vs Sabail FC prediction for the 1 Division match on Sep 17, 2026, at 12:30. Based on the stats, Sabail FC enters as the favorite with a 45% win probability, while Baku Sporting has a 20% chance and the draw sits at 35%.
Team Form
Baku Sporting's last five matches show inconsistency: two wins, one draw, and two defeats. They lost 3-0 to PFK Simurq Zaqatala and 0-3 to Karvan, drew 1-1 with Sahdag, then beat PFK Simurq Zaqatala 3-0 and Cabrayil FC 3-2. The team has scored 6 goals but conceded 9 in that span.
Sabail FC's recent form is slightly more stable: two wins, two draws, one loss. They beat Energetik Mingechevir 2-1, drew 1-1 with Khankendi, lost 4-1 to Energetik Mingechevir, drew 0-0 with Sahdag, and won 3-0 against PFK Simurq Zaqatala. They have netted 7 goals and conceded 6 across these five games.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record favors Sabail FC. In three previous meetings, Baku Sporting has never won (0 victories), while Sabail FC has one win and two draws. The most recent clash on Apr 02, 2026, ended 1-0 for Sabail FC. The only match at Baku Sporting's home finished 0-0 on Nov 21, 2025.
League Table Positions
In the 1 Division standings, Sabail FC sits 4th with 4 points from 2 matches (1 win, 1 draw), scoring 3 goals and conceding 2. Baku Sporting is bottom (10th) with 0 points after 2 losses, 0 goals scored and 6 conceded. The gap in both points and goal difference highlights Sabail FC's stronger start to the season.
Win Probability: Baku Sporting or Sabail FC?
After analyzing odds, form, H2H, and table positions, we calculate the following win probabilities: Baku Sporting win โ 20%, draw โ 35%, Sabail FC win โ 45%. The base odds (home 3.30, draw 2.05, away 2.58) implied a draw as the most likely outcome, but Sabail FC's superior league position, unbeaten H2H record, and Baku Sporting's poor defensive start shift the balance toward an away win. Sabail FC is the more probable winner.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers offer odds of 3.30 for a Baku Sporting victory, 2.05 for the draw, and 2.58 for a Sabail FC win. These odds suggest the draw is the favorite in the market, but our stats-based prediction leans towards Sabail FC. Considering the head-to-head trend and Baku Sporting's zero points from two games, backing Sabail FC to win provides value. The match is likely to be low-scoring, given Baku Sporting's goalless run and Sabail FC's solid away defensive record (1 goal conceded in 1 away game).
Baku Sporting vs Sabail FC โ FAQ
- Who will win Baku Sporting vs Sabail FC?
- Sabail FC is the favorite with a 45% win probability. Baku Sporting has a 20% chance, and the draw is at 35%. This is based on Sabail FC's better league position, unbeaten head-to-head record, and Baku Sporting's two opening defeats without scoring.
- What is the win probability for Sabail FC?
- Sabail FC has a 45% chance to win. The probability reflects their 4th place in the 1 Division table, a positive away form (1 draw, 1 goal scored), and a historical edge over Baku Sporting (1 win, 2 draws in H2H).
- When is the Baku Sporting vs Sabail FC match?
- The match is on Sep 17, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. It is a 1 Division fixture in Azerbaijan.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The 1X2 odds are: Baku Sporting win 3.30, draw 2.05, Sabail FC win 2.58. These odds come from the pre-match market and indicate the draw as the most likely outcome according to bookmakers.
- What is the head-to-head record between Baku Sporting and Sabail FC?
- In three previous meetings, Sabail FC won once and two matches ended in draws. Baku Sporting has never beaten Sabail FC. The last match on Apr 02, 2026, finished 1-0 to Sabail FC.