Santos Laguna - Pachuca prediction 27 September 2026

The Santos Laguna vs Pachuca prediction points to a tight Liga MX contest on Sep 27 at 04:05. Based on available odds, recent form, and head-to-head data, Pachuca enters as a slight favorite with a 40% win probability, while Santos Laguna has a 32% chance and the draw sits at 28%.

Team Form

Santos Laguna's last five matches show a mixed run: W, W, L, D, L. They earned a 3-2 away win over Toluca on Sep 21 and a 2-1 home victory against FC Juarez on Sep 14, but fell 1-0 at Cruz Azul on Sep 7 and 3-2 at Puebla on Aug 23, with a 0-0 home draw against Tigres UANL on Aug 30 in between.

Pachuca's recent form reads D, W, W, D, D. They drew 2-2 at home with Tijuana on Sep 21, won 3-0 at Atlante on Sep 12 and 2-0 at FC Juarez on Sep 5, and recorded 1-1 draws against Chivas Guadalajara (home, Aug 30) and Atletico San Luis (away, Aug 24).

Head-to-Head Record

In 30 previous meetings, Pachuca holds the edge with 12 wins to Santos Laguna's 4, alongside 14 draws. The last five encounters: Pachuca won 4-2 at home on Apr 12, 2026; Santos Laguna won 1-0 at home on Nov 9, 2025; Pachuca won 2-1 at home on Jan 21, 2025; a 1-1 draw at Santos Laguna on Oct 23, 2024; and a 3-2 Pachuca home win on Sep 19, 2023.

League Table Positions

In the overall Liga MX standings, Pachuca sits 11th with 12 points from 9 matches (3 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses; 15 goals scored, 10 conceded). Santos Laguna is outside the top 12 in the provided table. Notably, Pachuca ranks 3rd in the away standings with 10 points from 5 road games (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; 9 goals for, 2 against), showing strong traveling form.

Win Probability: Santos Laguna or Pachuca?

Analyzing all available data, the win probabilities are: Santos Laguna 32%, Draw 28%, Pachuca 40%. This calculation starts from the inverse of the average odds (home ~2.96, draw ~2.63, away ~2.40), normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, then adjusted for Pachuca's superior head-to-head record (12 wins to 4), their excellent away form (3rd in away table), and Santos Laguna's inconsistent recent results. Pachuca has a clear edge, but the high number of historical draws (14) keeps the draw probability significant.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' pre-match odds show variation: home win odds range from 2.80 to 3.10, draw odds from 2.30 to 3.65, and away win odds from 2.16 to 2.50. The best available price for a Pachuca victory is 2.50, while Santos Laguna can be backed at up to 3.10. Based on the stats, Pachuca is the more likely winner, but the value may lie in the draw given the historical frequency of stalemates between these sides.