Cruz Azul - Toluca prediction 26 September 2026
Cruz Azul
Toluca
QueretaroCruz AzulPachucaCruz AzulCruz AzulFC JuarezPumas UNAMCruz AzulCruz AzulTolucaCF Monterrey RayadosCruz AzulInter Miami CFCruz AzulCruz AzulClub AmericaCruz AzulSantos LagunaNecaxaCruz AzulCruz AzulAtlas GuadalajaraTijuanaCruz AzulCruz AzulAtlanteTolucaCruz AzulCruz AzulPueblaClub LeonTolucaTolucaTijuanaTolucaAtletico San LuisTigres UANLTolucaCruz AzulTolucaTolucaSantos LagunaPueblaTolucaTolucaAtlas GuadalajaraPueblaTolucaTolucaFC JuarezQueretaroTolucaAtlanteTolucaTolucaNecaxaTolucaCruz AzulTolucaPumas UNAM- 8A. PalavecinoM
- 4W. DittaD
- 19C. RodrรญguezM
- 5J. OrozcoD
- 3O. CamposD
- 2A. MozoD
- 7N. IbรกรฑezF
- 21G. FernรกndezF
- 33G. PioviD
- 20J. ParadelaM
- 1A. GudiรฑoG
- 30E. Ochoa
- 18L. Romero
- 12A. Montes
- 14J. Calero
- 10A. Montaรฑo
- 60Ariel Castro Sevilla
- 15R. Orquin
- 22J. Rodarte
- 11C. Ebere
- 55R. Gonzalez
- 4B. MรฉndezD
- 8N. CastroM
- 15P. PรฉrezM
- 17B. GarcรญaD
- 9A. VegaM
- 22L. GarcรญaG
- 2D. BarbosaM
- 26PaulinhoF
- 6F. PereiraD
- 13LuanD
- 11HelinhoM
- 35ร. Gutiรฉrrez
- 29J. Dรญaz
- 10J. Angulo
- 12R. Beltrรกn
- 3A. Briseรฑo
- 23O. Virgen
- 184S. Aceves
- 250J. Estrada
- 7'EventN. Ibรกรฑez
Cruz AzulTolucaTolucaCruz AzulTolucaCruz AzulCruz AzulTolucaTolucaCruz AzulCruz AzulTolucaTolucaCruz AzulTolucaCruz AzulTolucaCruz AzulCruz AzulTolucaCruz AzulTolucaTolucaCruz AzulTolucaCruz AzulCruz AzulTolucaCruz AzulTolucaTolucaCruz AzulCruz AzulTolucaTolucaCruz AzulCruz AzulTolucaTolucaCruz AzulCruz AzulTolucaCruz AzulTolucaCruz AzulTolucaCruz AzulTolucaCruz AzulTolucaCruz AzulTolucaCruz AzulTolucaTolucaCruz AzulTolucaCruz AzulCruz AzulTolucaCruz AzulTolucaTolucaCruz Azul| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 33:18 | +15 | 27 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 32:23 | +9 | 26 |
| 3 |  Chivas Guadalajara | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:12 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25:26 | -1 | 24 |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 29:19 | +10 | 23 |
| 6 |  Club Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 21:18 | +3 | 22 |
| 7 |  CF Monterrey Rayados | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 23:18 | +5 | 20 |
| 8 |  Tijuana | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21:17 | +4 | 20 |
| 9 |  Queretaro | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 17:18 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 |  Santos Laguna | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 20:20 | 0 | 19 |
| 11 |  Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 19:22 | -3 | 19 |
| 12 |  Pumas UNAM | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 20:23 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 |  Pachuca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22:19 | +3 | 16 |
| 14 |  Puebla | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16:21 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 |  Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 15:19 | -4 | 15 |
| 16 |  Atlante | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14:20 | -6 | 14 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16:27 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9:33 | -24 | 5 |
Cruz Azul vs Toluca Prediction (Sep 26)
The Cruz Azul vs Toluca prediction for the Liga MX match on Sep 26 at 23:50 at Estadio Azteca points to a tight contest. Based on the stats, Toluca has a 38% chance of winning, a draw is at 28%, and Cruz Azul has a 34% chance.
Team Form
Cruz Azul's last five results show three wins and two losses (W, W, W, L, L). They recently beat Club America 4-3 and Santos Laguna 1-0 at home, but lost away to CF Monterrey Rayados 1-0 and Inter Miami CF 2-0. Toluca's last five results are W, D, W, W, L. They won 5-2 at home against Atlas Guadalajara and 1-0 away at Puebla, but lost 2-3 at home to Santos Laguna.
Head-to-Head Record
In the last 31 meetings, Cruz Azul has 16 wins, Toluca has 7, and 8 ended in draws. The most recent match on Jul 26 saw Toluca 1-3 Cruz Azul. Before that, on Feb 7, the game ended 1-1. At Estadio Azteca on Aug 24, 2025, Cruz Azul won 1-0.
League Table Positions
Toluca sits 1st in the overall Liga MX table with 19 points from 9 games (6 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Cruz Azul is 4th with 15 points (5 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses). Toluca has the best away record (1st, 10 points from 4 games), while Cruz Azul's home form ranks 6th (9 points from 5 games).
Win Probability: Cruz Azul or Toluca?
Cruz Azul has a 34% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Toluca has a 38% chance. These probabilities are based on the average bookmaker odds (home ~2.56, draw ~2.73, away ~2.74), adjusted for Toluca's stronger league position, superior away form, and Cruz Azul's recent two-match losing streak. Toluca is slightly more likely to win.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers see this as an even match: Cruz Azul win odds range from 2.40 to 2.76, draw from 2.28 to 3.65, and Toluca win from 2.64 to 2.90. Based on the stats, Toluca's away strength and table lead give them a marginal edge, but Cruz Azul's home advantage and positive H2H record at Estadio Azteca make a draw a realistic outcome.
Cruz Azul vs Toluca โ FAQ
- Who will win Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
- Toluca has a 38% chance of winning, Cruz Azul has a 34% chance, and the draw is at 28%. Toluca is slightly favored based on their 1st-place league position and perfect away record this season.
- What is the win probability for Toluca?
- Toluca has a 38% win probability. This is calculated from the average odds and adjusted for their strong away form (3 wins, 1 draw in 4 away games) and top spot in the Liga MX table.
- When is the Cruz Azul vs Toluca match?
- The match is on Sep 26 at 23:50 local time. It is a Liga MX fixture played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The odds vary by bookmaker. For a Cruz Azul win, odds range from 2.40 to 2.76. A draw is priced between 2.28 and 3.65, and a Toluca win between 2.64 and 2.90.