TSG 1899 Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV prediction 10 October 2026
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SVTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25:6 | +19 | 17 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:4 | +8 | 17 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | +7 | 13 |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | +9 | 12 |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 |  Mainz 05 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 |  SV Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:15 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 |  Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:16 | -10 | 9 |
| 12 |  FC Koln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:17 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 |  VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 |  Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:18 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11:22 | -11 | 3 |
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV Prediction (Oct 10)
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV prediction for the Bundesliga clash on Oct 10, 2026, at 14:30 in the PreZero Arena, Sinsheim. Based on our analysis of odds, team form, and head-to-head record, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim enter the match as favorites with a 55% win probability, while Hamburger SV have a 20% chance and the draw stands at 25%.
Team Form
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim's recent form has been poor. In their last five matches, they have recorded one win and four losses (L, L, W, L, L). They suffered defeats against SC Paderborn 07 (3-1), OFI Crete (2-0) in the Europa League, Borussia Dortmund (2-3), and FC Koln (2-3). Their only victory came at home against VfB Stuttgart (2-1). Defensive frailties are evident, conceding 11 goals in these five games.
Hamburger SV's recent form has been inconsistent. They won two consecutive matches (a friendly against Copenhagen and a league game against FC Koln) but then lost three in a row, including a 5-0 thrashing at RB Leipzig and a 0-5 home loss to Mainz 05. Their away league form shows one win and two heavy defeats in the last three road trips.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record heavily favors TSG 1899 Hoffenheim. In nine previous meetings, Hoffenheim have won six times, Hamburger SV three times, and there have been no draws. The most recent encounters were both won by Hoffenheim: a 2-1 away victory on Apr 25, 2026, and a dominant 4-1 home win on Dec 13, 2025. Hoffenheim have also kept clean sheets in three of the last four H2H matches.
Win Probability: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim or Hamburger SV?
We calculate the win probabilities based on bookmaker odds, adjusted for recent form and head-to-head statistics. The average odds imply a 52% chance for a Hoffenheim win, 32% for a draw, and 16% for a Hamburger SV victory. However, Hoffenheim's poor recent form (one win in five) tempers their favoritism, while Hamburg's mixed results and heavy defeats reduce their chances. Taking into account Hoffenheim's strong H2H record and home advantage, we assign a 55% probability to a home win, 25% to a draw, and 20% to an away win. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim are the more likely winners, but the match could be closer than the odds suggest.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers have set the following odds: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win at 1.70, draw at 2.80, and Hamburger SV win at 5.50. These odds reflect Hoffenheim's status as clear favorites. Our TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV prediction is a home win, but given Hoffenheim's defensive issues, both teams to score could be a value bet. Based on the stats, a 2-1 scoreline in favor of the home side is a plausible outcome.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV โ FAQ
- Who will win TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have a 55% chance of winning, compared to 20% for Hamburger SV and a 25% chance of a draw. Based on the stats, Hoffenheim are the most likely winners.
- What is the win probability for TSG 1899 Hoffenheim?
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have a 55% win probability. This is derived from bookmaker odds, adjusted for their strong head-to-head record and home advantage, though their recent form has been poor.
- When is the TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV match?
- The match takes place on Oct 10, 2026, at 14:30 local time. It is a Bundesliga fixture at the PreZero Arena in Sinsheim, Germany.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The odds for a TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win are around 1.70, a draw is priced at 2.80, and a Hamburger SV victory at 5.50. Odds vary slightly across bookmakers, but all see Hoffenheim as favorites.
- What is the head-to-head record between these teams?
- In nine previous meetings, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have won six, Hamburger SV three, with no draws. Hoffenheim have won the last two encounters, including a 4-1 home win in December 2025.