Union Berlin - SV Elversberg prediction 10 October 2026

Our Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg prediction for the Bundesliga match on October 10, 2026, at 14:30 sees Union Berlin as the marginal favorite with a 38% win probability, but in-form SV Elversberg is right behind at 37%. The clash at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Berlin is poised to be a closely fought encounter.

Team Form

Union Berlin

Union Berlin's last five results across all competitions: W, L, L, L, D. They beat Rijeka 1-0 in a friendly, but their Bundesliga form is concerning: a 0-7 thrashing at Bayern Munich, a 1-3 home loss to Schalke 04, a 0-4 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen, and a 3-3 home draw with Eintracht Frankfurt. That's zero wins in four league matches, with 17 goals conceded. At home, they have lost to Schalke and drawn with Frankfurt, failing to keep a clean sheet.

SV Elversberg

SV Elversberg's last five results: D, L, W, W, W. In the Bundesliga, they drew 0-0 at Schalke 04, lost 1-2 at home to Bayern Munich, then won 4-3 at Borussia Monchengladbach and 3-2 at home to Bayer Leverkusen. They also beat MSV Duisburg 3-1 in the DFB Pokal. Their league form shows two wins, one draw, and one loss from the last four, with eight goals scored. Away from home, they are unbeaten in the league (a draw and a win), scoring four goals.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head record between Union Berlin and SV Elversberg. The two sides have never faced each other in a competitive fixture, making this their first meeting.

League Table Positions

SV Elversberg currently sits 9th in the Bundesliga with 6 points from 3 matches (2 wins, 1 loss), having scored 8 and conceded 7. Union Berlin is outside the top 12 in the standings, with their exact position not listed among the top half. The table gap and SV Elversberg's game in hand give the visitors a slight advantage in the league context.

Win Probability: Union Berlin or SV Elversberg?

We start with the bookmaker odds: Union Berlin win at 2.34, draw at 4.00, SV Elversberg win at 2.94. Removing the margin, the fair probabilities are roughly 42% for a home win, 25% for the draw, and 34% for an away win. We then adjust for recent form and league positions.

Union Berlin's winless Bundesliga run and heavy defeats lower their chances, while SV Elversberg's strong attacking form and higher table position boost theirs. Home advantage is factored in, but Union Berlin's poor home results reduce its impact. Our final win probabilities are: Union Berlin 38%, Draw 25%, SV Elversberg 37%. This is a coin-toss match, with SV Elversberg holding a real chance to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available 1X2 odds are Union Berlin 2.34, Draw 4.00, SV Elversberg 2.94. Bookmakers see Union Berlin as the favorite, but the odds imply a tight contest. Based on the stats, SV Elversberg offers value as the underdog. For betting tips, the over 2.5 goals market is attractive given both teams' recent high-scoring matches. Our match prediction: a draw or an away win are the most likely outcomes, but Union Berlin could edge it with home support. A double chance on SV Elversberg or draw (X2) is worth considering.