VfB Stuttgart - Borussia Monchengladbach prediction 23 October 2026

The VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Monchengladbach prediction for the Bundesliga clash on October 23, 2026, at 19:30 leans strongly towards the home side. Based on recent form, head-to-head record, and bookmaker odds, VfB Stuttgart enters the match as a clear favorite with an estimated 58% win probability.

Team Form

VfB Stuttgart’s recent results show a team in excellent shape. They have won four of their last five matches across all competitions. Their run includes a 3-0 victory at Slovan Bratislava in the UEFA Champions League and a 2-0 win at SC Paderborn 07. The only blemish was a narrow 1-0 loss at Hamburger SV on October 17. In those five matches, they scored 10 goals and conceded just 1, keeping four clean sheets.

Borussia Monchengladbach's away form is a major concern. Their last five matches have resulted in one draw and four losses. They were beaten 2-1 at FC Koln, 4-3 at home against Mainz 05, and suffered a heavy 5-0 defeat at SC Freiburg. The draw came in a friendly against FC St. Pauli (1-1). Defensive fragility is a recurring theme.

Head-to-Head Record

History slightly favors VfB Stuttgart. In the last 20 H2H meetings, Stuttgart has won 10, Monchengladbach 7, with 3 draws. Recent history is mixed but reveals a trend: the home team usually wins. The most recent fixture, on August 30, 2025, saw VfB Stuttgart beat Monchengladbach 1-0 at this venue. The reverse match in January 2026 was won 3-0 by Stuttgart in Monchengladbach.

• Jan 25, 2026: Borussia Monchengladbach 0 – 3 VfB Stuttgart
• Aug 30, 2025: VfB Stuttgart 1 – 0 Borussia Monchengladbach
• Feb 1, 2025: VfB Stuttgart 1 – 2 Borussia Monchengladbach
• Jan 14, 2024: Borussia Monchengladbach 3 – 1 VfB Stuttgart
• Apr 29, 2023: VfB Stuttgart 2 – 1 Borussia Monchengladbach

League Table Positions

Neither team is visible in the provided league table excerpts, but Stuttgart's form indicates they are competing in the upper half. Monchengladbach's recent losing run suggests a position in the lower half. The home advantage at the 60,441-capacity Mercedes-Benz Arena in Stuttgart adds another layer of difficulty for the visitors.

Win Probability: VfB Stuttgart or Borussia Monchengladbach?

VfB Stuttgart has a 58% chance of winning. The draw is estimated at 25%, and Borussia Monchengladbach has a 17% chance. These percentages are calculated by using the lowest available bookmaker odds (home 1.62, draw 2.90, away 4.80) to establish an implied probability baseline, then adjusting for the contrasting form and H2H record. Stuttgart’s 80% win rate in the last five matches against Monchengladbach's 80% loss rate heavily skews the model. The conclusion is that VfB Stuttgart is far more likely to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see VfB Stuttgart as the strong favorite. The best available home win odds are around 1.62, with the draw priced between 2.90 and 3.00, and an away win as high as 5.00. Based on the stats, a home win is the most probable match outcome. The total goals market is not priced in the data, but Stuttgart's defensive solidity and Monchengladbach's scoring struggles on the road point to a low-scoring affair.