Werder Bremen - SC Paderborn 07 prediction 17 October 2026

The Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction for the Bundesliga match on October 17, 2026, at 14:30 gives Werder Bremen a 55% chance of winning, with the draw at 25% and SC Paderborn 07 at 20%. The home team enters as the clear favorite based on form, head-to-head record, and league table positions.

Team Form

Werder Bremen’s last five results across all competitions: D, L, W, D, W. The heavy friendly defeat at Twente (0–7) is the only loss in that run. In Bundesliga play, they are unbeaten in four (W2 D2), most recently drawing 2–2 at Borussia Dortmund and beating Augsburg 3–2 and RB Leipzig 3–1 at home. Werder’s attack has been consistent, with 10 goals in 5 league matches.

SC Paderborn 07’s last five outings read W, W, L, L, D. The two wins include a friendly against D.C. United. In the Bundesliga, they have struggled with a 3–0 loss at Dortmund, a 0–1 home defeat to SC Freiburg, and a 0–0 draw at Mainz 05, mixed with a 3–1 home win over Hoffenheim. Paderborn’s league form shows just one clean sheet in four matches and a clear drop‑off away from home.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall H2H tally between the sides is 3 Werder Bremen wins, 2 draws, and 2 SC Paderborn 07 wins. In the most recent five meetings:

• Aug 8, 2026 – Friendly: Werder Bremen 2–2 SC Paderborn 07
• Oct 30, 2024 – DFB Pokal: SC Paderborn 07 0–1 Werder Bremen
• Oct 19, 2022 – DFB Pokal: SC Paderborn 07 2–2 Werder Bremen
• Jan 22, 2022 – Bundesliga 2: SC Paderborn 07 3–4 Werder Bremen
• Aug 15, 2021 – Bundesliga 2: Werder Bremen 1–4 SC Paderborn 07

Werder Bremen have lost just once in the last five clashes (W2 D2 L1) and won the only cup tie in this period, underscoring a slight psychological edge.

League Table Positions

Werder Bremen sit 7th in the Bundesliga with 8 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; goals 10–10). Their home record is perfect: 2 wins from 2, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded – ranking 6th in the home form table. SC Paderborn 07 are positioned outside the top 12 overall and do not feature in the top 8 of the away standings, indicating a challenging start to their campaign and poor results on the road.

Win Probability: Werder Bremen or SC Paderborn 07?

Using bookmaker odds as a base and adjusting for recent form, H2H data, league positions, and home advantage, we calculate the following outcome probabilities:

• Werder Bremen win: 55%
• Draw: 25%
• SC Paderborn 07 win: 20%

Werder Bremen’s unblemished home record, a higher league standing, and Paderborn’s weak away form all tilt the percentages in the hosts’ favour. The aggregated odds implied a home win probability of roughly 48%, which we boosted to 55% after factoring in those situational strengths.

Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction & Odds

Across multiple bookmakers, the best available 1X2 odds are:

• Werder Bremen win: 1.67 – 1.82
• Draw: 2.40 – 4.20
• SC Paderborn 07 win: 3.70 – 4.20

Bookmakers see Werder Bremen as the favourite, and the data strongly supports a home win. Paderborn’s odds above 3.70 suggest the market gives them a low chance of an upset. Based on the stats, form, and H2H record, Werder Bremen to win is the most likely match outcome.